Lille 1-0 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Pierre-Mauroy plays host to Lille versus Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 24 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Lille (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lille are significantly better at Stade Pierre-Mauroy than their overall form suggests.
Monaco have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Monaco have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monaco's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Lille against 2.00 for Monaco. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lille register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Monaco in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lille lead 3W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Lille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 60% and Monaco 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 51% | Monaco 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.73 xG and Monaco 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.048 / defence 0.956 | Monaco attack 1.016 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.125. Data: 35 Lille games / 35 Monaco games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lille 52% | Draw 24% | Monaco 24%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Monaco 4.17. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lille 80% | Monaco 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 52% | Draw 24% | Monaco 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Lille 1.73 / Monaco 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.048 / def 0.956 | Monaco attack 1.016 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Lille (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Monaco xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Monaco kick off?
Lille vs Monaco kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Monaco?
Lille 1 - 0 Monaco.
Where is Lille vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Monaco part of?
Lille vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 52% chance of winning, Monaco a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lille and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Monaco?
Record (8 meetings): Lille 3W | Draws 3 | Monaco 2W.
What form are Lille and Monaco in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Monaco (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.05x the league average against Monaco's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (1.02x) against Lille's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.21
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Lille xG
Total xG
2.82
1.09
Monaco xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
4%
23.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Lille and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Lille and 1.09 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Lille have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 17W 10D 8L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monaco's form line: 19W 7D 9L from 35 games, 1.83 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Monaco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Lille against 1.83 for Monaco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lille have posted 2.18 PPG from 17 outings (11W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Monaco have gone 6W 4D 7L from 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monaco's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.89 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Monaco in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Monaco
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Monaco in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 17W 10D 8L in their last 35 games (1.74 PPG), while Monaco have gone 19W 7D 9L in their last 35 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Monaco away?
Lille's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.18 PPG; Monaco away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Lille or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Monaco in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lille go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lille
3
Draws
2
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 5, Monaco have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Monaco 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Monaco?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Lille, 71% for Monaco — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Lille and 71% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Lille's games and 71% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Lille's matches and 71% of Monaco's.
Do Lille and Monaco tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Monaco in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Monaco 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Monaco 1-0 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.73 xG and Monaco 1.09 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Monaco landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Monaco attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lille 52% | Draw 24% | Monaco 24%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 51%, Monaco 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Monaco's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.74 PPG, Monaco 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.