Angers vs Nice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Nice (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Angers face Nice.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Angers host Nice at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Nice — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Nice have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Angers's 2 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Nice winning.
It is worth noting that Nice have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Angers in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Nice in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 42% versus Nice 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 33% | Nice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.26 xG and Nice 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.792 / defence 1.200 | Nice attack 0.888 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.307. Angers's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Angers games / 43 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 32% | Draw 29% | Nice 39%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Nice 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Angers 40% | Nice 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 32% | Draw 29% | Nice 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Angers 1.26 / Nice 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.792 / def 1.200 | Nice attack 0.888 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Nice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Nice xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Nice kick off?
Angers vs Nice is scheduled to kick off at 16:15 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
Where is Angers vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Nice part of?
Angers vs Nice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 32% chance of winning, Nice a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Angers and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Nice?
Record (8 meetings): Angers 2W | Draws 1 | Nice 5W.
What form are Angers and Nice in?
Angers (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Nice's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
32%
3.08
29%
3.47
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Angers xG
Total xG
2.65
1.39
Nice xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Angers and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Angers and 1.39 for Nice, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Angers's recent record stands at 11W 11D 21L from 43 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 18L across 43 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.02 PPG, Nice on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Angers have managed 7W 6D 9L from 22 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 4W 4D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.19 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Nice in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Nice have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Nice away?
Angers's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.23 PPG; Nice away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Angers or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Nice in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Nice specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Nice?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Nice have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Angers 0-2 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 41%, Nice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Angers) and 59% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Angers have failed to score in 32% of games; Nice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Angers's recent matches and 59% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Angers's recent games and 59% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Nice tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Nice in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.