VPS 1-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VPS (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VPS face Haka.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lemonsoft Stadion plays host to VPS versus Haka in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off: Friday 26 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
VPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VPS have posted 3W 4D 3L at Lemonsoft Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Haka (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. VPS's 1.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Haka's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — VPS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Haka in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: VPS 5W, Haka 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2025, ended 1–2 with Haka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
VPS half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Haka half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 75% and Haka 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VPS 67% | Haka 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.47 xG and Haka 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.772 / defence 0.935 | Haka attack 0.847 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.652. VPS's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 VPS games / 44 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 40% | Draw 27% | Haka 33%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Haka 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VPS 60% | Haka 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 40% | Draw 27% | Haka 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG VPS 1.47 / Haka 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.772 / def 0.935 | Haka attack 0.847 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.652 • Poisson stance: VPS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Haka xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Haka kick off?
VPS vs Haka kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Haka?
VPS 1 - 0 Haka.
Where is VPS vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Haka part of?
VPS vs Haka is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 40% chance of winning, Haka a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both VPS and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Haka?
Record (9 meetings): VPS 5W | Draws 1 | Haka 3W.
What form are VPS and Haka in?
VPS (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Haka (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VPS's attack rating (0.77) and Haka's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Haka's attack (0.85x) against VPS's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.64
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
VPS xG
Total xG
2.77
1.31
Haka xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are VPS and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for VPS and 1.31 for Haka, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VPS come into this having played 52 games, going 18W 13D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.08 PPG from 52 outings (15W 11D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for VPS against 1.08 for Haka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
VPS's home form reads 9W 8D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.04 points per game from 26 outings (7W 6D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VPS are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.38 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Haka in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Haka in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Haka have gone 15W 11D 26L in their last 52 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Haka away?
VPS's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.35 PPG; Haka away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haka won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VPS have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
1
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, Haka have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when VPS 1-0 Haka.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Haka?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VPS see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for VPS, 62% for Haka — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VPS) and 62% (Haka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Haka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of VPS's games and 62% of Haka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of VPS's matches and 62% of Haka's.
Do VPS and Haka tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Haka in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out Haka 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Haka 1-0 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Relegation Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.47 xG and Haka 1.31 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Haka landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.77 / defence 0.94 against Haka attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 40% | Draw 27% | Haka 33%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 67%, Haka 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Haka's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VPS 1.29 PPG, Haka 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. VPS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.