Mariehamn 1-0 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours KuPS (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mariehamn face KuPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KuPS make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Wednesday 18 June 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Mariehamn (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
KuPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. KuPS are 1.20 PPG clear of Mariehamn in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, KuPS have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Mariehamn's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 1–4 with KuPS winning.
It is worth noting that KuPS have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
KuPS — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 52% versus KuPS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 57% | KuPS 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.15 xG and KuPS 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.950 / defence 1.454 | KuPS attack 0.923 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.548. Data: 33 Mariehamn games / 34 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 20% | Draw 21% | KuPS 59%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | KuPS 1.69. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 63% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Mariehamn 40% | KuPS 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Jun 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 20% | Draw 21% | KuPS 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Mariehamn 1.15 / KuPS 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.950 / def 1.454 | KuPS attack 0.923 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: KuPS (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
2.08
KuPS xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs KuPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 18 June 2025 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Mariehamn 1 - 0 KuPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs KuPS part of?
Mariehamn vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 20% chance of winning, KuPS a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mariehamn and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
Record (7 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 2 | KuPS 4W.
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. KuPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.95x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (0.92x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
20%
4.89
21%
4.80
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.23
2.08
KuPS xG
4.89
20%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
13%
7.98
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
3%
39.01
19%
5.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Mariehamn and 2.08 for KuPS, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 13W 12D 29L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 33W 10D 11L from 54 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 13W 8D 4L from 25 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.61 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 13W 12D 29L in their last 54 games (0.94 PPG), while KuPS have gone 33W 10D 11L in their last 54 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.12 PPG; KuPS away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, KuPS in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
3
Draws
4
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 3, KuPS have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when KuPS 2-4 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 40%, KuPS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mariehamn) and 44% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 36%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 52% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Mariehamn's recent games and 44% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and KuPS tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, KuPS in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat KuPS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat KuPS 1-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.15 xG and KuPS 2.08 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KuPS landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.95 / defence 1.45 against KuPS attack 0.92 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 20% | Draw 21% | KuPS 59%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Mariehamn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 57%, KuPS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Mariehamn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.