Honka 1-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Honka at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Honka vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Tapiolan Urheilupuisto to face Honka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 July 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Honka (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Honka have posted 5W 3D 2L at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Mariehamn have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Honka. A 1.40 PPG lead over Mariehamn (2.30 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Honka 1W, Mariehamn 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Honka half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mariehamn half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Honka 55% versus Mariehamn 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Honka 47% | Mariehamn 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Honka 2.11 xG and Mariehamn 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Honka attack 1.278 / defence 0.776 | Mariehamn attack 0.765 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.349. Honka carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Honka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Honka's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Honka games / 33 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Honka 68% | Draw 19% | Mariehamn 13%. Fair-value odds: Honka 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Mariehamn 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Honka (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Honka at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Honka 50% | Mariehamn 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Honka vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tapiolan Urheilupuisto • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Honka 68% | Draw 19% | Mariehamn 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 48% | xG Honka 2.11 / Mariehamn 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Honka attack 1.278 / def 0.776 | Mariehamn attack 0.765 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Honka (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Honka xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Mariehamn xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Honka vs Mariehamn kick off?
Honka vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What was the final score in Honka vs Mariehamn?
Honka 1 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Honka vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto.
What competition is Honka vs Mariehamn part of?
Honka vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Honka vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Honka a 68% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Honka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Honka vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Honka and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Honka vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and Mariehamn?
Record (4 meetings): Honka 1W | Draws 2 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are Honka and Mariehamn in?
Honka (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Honka's attack rating (1.28) and Mariehamn's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.77x) against Honka's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Honka Win
68%
1.48
19%
5.17
13%
7.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Honka xG
Total xG
2.91
0.80
Mariehamn xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
7.67
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
12%
8.25
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
2%
63.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Honka vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Honka and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Honka and 0.80 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Honka vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Honka come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 8D 14L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Honka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 1.05 PPG from 38 outings (11W 7D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Honka carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Honka's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (5W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Honka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Honka are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Honka
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Honka and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Honka have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 11W 7D 20L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Honka at home or Mariehamn away?
Honka's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Honka at home: 1.63 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Honka have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Honka have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Honka
3
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Honka and Mariehamn?
From 7 meetings on record, Honka have won 3, Mariehamn have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Honka and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2023, when Mariehamn 0-1 Honka.
Who has won more matches between Honka and Mariehamn?
Honka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Honka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Honka 53%, Mariehamn 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Honka) and 42% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Honka have failed to score in 37% of games; Mariehamn in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Honka home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Honka play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Honka's recent matches and 37% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Honka vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Honka's recent games and 42% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Honka and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Honka have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Honka and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Honka and Mariehamn finished level at 1-1 at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Honka 2.11 xG and Mariehamn 0.80 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Honka fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Honka attack 1.28 / defence 0.78 against Mariehamn attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Honka 68% | Draw 19% | Mariehamn 13%, with Honka to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Honka 47%, Mariehamn 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Honka's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Honka arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.