AC Oulu 0-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Mariehamn meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raatin stadion, AC Oulu have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raatin stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — AC Oulu are significantly better at Raatin stadion than their overall form suggests.
Mariehamn (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for AC Oulu, 1.00 for Mariehamn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for AC Oulu, 2 for Mariehamn and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Mariehamn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 64% versus Mariehamn 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 61% | Mariehamn 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.73 xG and Mariehamn 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.983 / defence 1.315 | Mariehamn attack 0.771 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.653. Data: 29 AC Oulu games / 29 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 40% | Draw 23% | Mariehamn 38%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Mariehamn 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 66% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, AC Oulu are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates are neutral: AC Oulu 30% | Mariehamn 60%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 40% | Draw 23% | Mariehamn 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG AC Oulu 1.73 / Mariehamn 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.983 / def 1.315 | Mariehamn attack 0.771 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.653 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Mariehamn xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kick off?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
AC Oulu 0 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn part of?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 40% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both AC Oulu and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
Record (5 meetings): AC Oulu 2W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 2W.
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.98x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.77x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
40%
2.51
23%
4.42
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
3.40
1.68
Mariehamn xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
7%
14.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.68 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 18W 13D 25L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn's form line: 13W 13D 30L from 56 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for AC Oulu against 0.93 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (12W 6D 10L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 6W 5D 17L from 28 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.04 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 18W 13D 25L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 13W 13D 30L in their last 56 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Mariehamn away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.50 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, Mariehamn have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 54%, Mariehamn 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AC Oulu) and 61% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of AC Oulu's games and 61% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of AC Oulu's matches and 61% of Mariehamn's.
Do AC Oulu and Mariehamn tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat AC Oulu 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat AC Oulu 0-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.73 xG and Mariehamn 1.68 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AC Oulu fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.98 / defence 1.31 against Mariehamn attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 40% | Draw 23% | Mariehamn 38%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 61%, Mariehamn 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.20 PPG, Mariehamn 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.