Sheffield Utd 0-3 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tottenham at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sheffield Utd welcome Tottenham to Bramall Lane in Premier League (matchday 38). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sheffield Utd have gone 0W 3D 7L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sheffield Utd's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Tottenham stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Tottenham have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tottenham are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Sheffield Utd, 1 for Tottenham and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Sheffield Utd 1–2 Tottenham — a Tottenham win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sheffield Utd trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Tottenham trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 81% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Utd 51% versus Tottenham 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Utd 55% | Tottenham 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Utd 1.43 xG and Tottenham 2.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Utd attack 0.716 / defence 1.854 | Tottenham attack 0.991 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.501. Sheffield Utd's attack rating of 0.716 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.43. Sheffield Utd's defence rating of 1.854 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tottenham's projected output up. Data: built from Sheffield Utd's last 37 games and Tottenham's last 75.
Result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 17% | Draw 17% | Tottenham 65%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Utd 5.74 | Draw 5.73 | Tottenham 1.53. The model has a clear lean to Tottenham (65%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 4.18. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.18 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.43 / 2.76) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tottenham at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.18 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sheffield Utd's last 10 home games and Tottenham's last 10 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sheffield Utd 60% (last 10 home games) | Tottenham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 38 | Venue: Bramall Lane • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Utd 17% | Draw 17% | Tottenham 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% (Under 21%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG Sheffield Utd 1.43 / Tottenham 2.76 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Utd attack 0.716 / def 1.854 | Tottenham attack 0.991 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Sheffield Utd xG
Expected Goals
2.76
Tottenham xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham FAQs
What time does Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham kick off?
Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Bramall Lane.
What was the final score in Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham?
Sheffield Utd 0 - 3 Tottenham.
Where is Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Bramall Lane.
What competition is Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham part of?
Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Utd a 17% chance of winning, Tottenham a 65% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Sheffield Utd and Tottenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sheffield Utd's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Tottenham's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Sheffield Utd's defence, projects 2.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sheffield Utd's last 37 games and Tottenham's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
17%
5.74
17%
5.73
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.6%
Away win
1 – 1
6.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Sheffield Utd xG
Total xG
4.18
2.76
Tottenham xG
5.74
17%
Home win
5.73
17%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
6%
15.78
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
1%
90.61
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Sheffield Utd and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sheffield Utd and 2.76 for Tottenham, a combined total of 4.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sheffield Utd's recent record stands at 26W 12D 37L from 75 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 37W 12D 26L across 75 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tottenham by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sheffield Utd heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sheffield Utd have managed 14W 7D 16L from their last 37 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 12W 11D 14L across their last 37 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sheffield Utd are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.88 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 68%.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Tottenham
Current Season
Sheffield Utd (Home) vs Tottenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sheffield Utd
Current Season
Tottenham
Current Season
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham Form FAQs
What form are Sheffield Utd and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Sheffield Utd have gone 26W 12D 37L in their last 75 games (1.20 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 37W 12D 26L in their last 75 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Utd at home or Tottenham away?
Sheffield Utd's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Utd at home: 1.32 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sheffield Utd
0
Draws
2
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Utd and Tottenham?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Sheffield Utd have won 0, Tottenham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Utd and Tottenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 May 2024: Sheffield Utd 0-3 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Utd and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Utd 54%, Tottenham 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sheffield Utd and 68% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Utd home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sheffield Utd vs Tottenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sheffield Utd and Tottenham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sheffield Utd's games and 65% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sheffield Utd and Tottenham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sheffield Utd's matches and 68% of Tottenham's.
Do Sheffield Utd and Tottenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sheffield Utd's recent matches and 81% of Tottenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sheffield Utd.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Sheffield Utd 0-3 at Bramall Lane, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Utd 1.43 xG and Tottenham 2.76 xG, a combined 4.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Utd fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Utd attack 0.72 / defence 1.85 against Tottenham attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Utd 17% | Draw 17% | Tottenham 65%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Utd 55%, Tottenham 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tottenham's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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