Arsenal 2-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Arsenal host Everton at Emirates Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Arsenal — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Arsenal at Emirates Stadium this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Emirates Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Everton away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Arsenal have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Arsenal, 2 for Everton and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Arsenal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Arsenal trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Everton trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 48% versus Everton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 65% | Everton 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 2.34 xG and Everton 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.284 / defence 0.658 | Everton attack 0.661 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.501. Arsenal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Arsenal's defence rating of 0.658 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Arsenal games / 75 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 75% | Draw 17% | Everton 8%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | Everton 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (75%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal 30% | Everton 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 75% | Draw 17% | Everton 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 44% | xG Arsenal 2.34 / Everton 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.284 / def 0.658 | Everton attack 0.661 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.501 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Everton xG
44%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Everton kick off?
Arsenal vs Everton kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Everton?
Arsenal 2 - 1 Everton.
Where is Arsenal vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Everton part of?
Arsenal vs Everton is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 75% chance of winning, Everton a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Arsenal and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Everton?
Record (5 meetings): Arsenal 3W | Draws 0 | Everton 2W.
What form are Arsenal and Everton in?
Arsenal (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Everton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arsenal's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.34. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Arsenal's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 3-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
75%
1.34
17%
5.84
8%
12.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
3 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.99
0.65
Everton xG
1.34
75%
Home win
5.84
17%
Draw
12.21
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
10%
10.34
Win to Nil
39%
2.57
1%
126.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.65 for Everton, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arsenal come into this having played 75 games, going 53W 11D 11L for 2.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.12 PPG from 75 outings (21W 21D 33L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Arsenal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Arsenal's home form reads 28W 5D 4L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 0.95 points per game from 37 outings (7W 14D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arsenal are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.97 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Everton in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 53W 11D 11L in their last 75 games (2.27 PPG), while Everton have gone 21W 21D 33L in their last 75 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Everton away?
Arsenal's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.41 PPG; Everton away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Everton in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Arsenal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Arsenal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arsenal's record when hosting Everton specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Arsenal
2
Draws
2
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 6, Everton have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arsenal 2-0 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Everton?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 62%, Everton 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Arsenal and 43% for Everton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Everton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Arsenal's games and 49% of Everton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Arsenal's matches and 43% of Everton's.
Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Everton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Everton 2-1 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 2.34 xG and Everton 0.65 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.28 / defence 0.66 against Everton attack 0.66 / defence 1.03, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 75% | Draw 17% | Everton 8%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 65%, Everton 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.