Burnley 0-5 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 72% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Arsenal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Arsenal meet at Turf Moor in Premier League (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Burnley (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Arsenal have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Arsenal's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Arsenal arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Arsenal edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Burnley 1–3 Arsenal — a Arsenal win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Arsenal — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 53% versus Arsenal 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 58% | Arsenal 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.89 xG and Arsenal 2.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.725 / defence 1.261 | Arsenal attack 1.284 / defence 0.712. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.538. Burnley's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Arsenal bring a tight defence (rating 0.712, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Burnley's projected output down. Arsenal have an above-average attack rating of 1.284, which lifts their away xG to 2.49. Burnley's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Arsenal's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 24 games and Arsenal's last 62.
Result probabilities: Burnley 11% | Draw 17% | Arsenal 72%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 9.11 | Draw 5.80 | Arsenal 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (72%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Arsenal's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burnley 50% (last 10 home games) | Arsenal 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 11% | Draw 17% | Arsenal 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Burnley 0.89 / Arsenal 2.49 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.725 / def 1.261 | Arsenal attack 1.284 / def 0.712 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.538 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
2.49
Arsenal xG
55%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Arsenal FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Arsenal kick off?
Burnley vs Arsenal kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Arsenal?
Burnley 0 - 5 Arsenal.
Where is Burnley vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Arsenal part of?
Burnley vs Arsenal is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 11% chance of winning, Arsenal a 72% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Burnley and Arsenal will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Burnley's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Arsenal's attack (1.28x) against Burnley's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 2.49.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 24 games and Arsenal's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-3 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
11%
9.11
17%
5.80
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.38
2.49
Arsenal xG
9.11
11%
Home win
5.80
17%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
8%
12.07
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
1%
109.96
29%
3.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Burnley and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Burnley and 2.49 for Arsenal, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Arsenal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 29W 14D 19L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Arsenal's form line: 42W 10D 10L from 62 games, 2.19 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 31 home games (16W 5D 10L).
On the road, Arsenal have gone 19W 5D 7L from their last 31 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 2.27 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
Burnley (Home) vs Arsenal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Burnley vs Arsenal Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 29W 14D 19L in their last 62 games (1.63 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 42W 10D 10L in their last 62 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.71 PPG; Arsenal away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Burnley or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Arsenal in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 18 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won Burnley 0-5 Arsenal on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Arsenal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
1
Draws
5
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Arsenal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Arsenal?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 0, Arsenal have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Burnley and Arsenal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2026: Arsenal 1-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 45%, Arsenal 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Burnley) and 48% (Arsenal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Arsenal in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Arsenal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Arsenal matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Burnley's recent matches and 39% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Arsenal matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Burnley's matches and 48% of Arsenal's.
Do Burnley and Arsenal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Burnley's recent matches and 71% of Arsenal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Burnley 0-5 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.89 xG and Arsenal 2.49 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Burnley fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Arsenal outscored their 2.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.72 / defence 1.26 against Arsenal attack 1.28 / defence 0.71, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 11% | Draw 17% | Arsenal 72%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 58%, Arsenal 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Arsenal's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.63. That form edge translated into the three points. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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