Brentford 1-4 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brentford vs Liverpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Brentford welcome Liverpool to Gtech Community Stadium in Premier League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Brentford stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Brentford's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Liverpool — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Liverpool's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Liverpool's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Brentford's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Brentford's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Brentford, 3 for Liverpool and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Brentford 0–3 Liverpool — a Liverpool win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Brentford trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Liverpool trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brentford 57% versus Liverpool 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 54% | Liverpool 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Brentford surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Liverpool have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 1.34 xG and Liverpool 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 0.998 / defence 1.187 | Liverpool attack 1.135 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.526. Liverpool bring a tight defence (rating 0.775, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Brentford's projected output down. Data: built from Brentford's last 61 games and Liverpool's last 62.
Result probabilities: Brentford 24% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 53%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 4.14 | Draw 4.47 | Liverpool 1.87. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.34 / 2.06) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Brentford's last 10 home games and Liverpool's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brentford 80% (last 10 home games) | Liverpool 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brentford vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, matchday 25 | Venue: Gtech Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brentford 24% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Brentford 1.34 / Liverpool 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Brentford attack 0.998 / def 1.187 | Liverpool attack 1.135 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Brentford xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Liverpool xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brentford vs Liverpool FAQs
What time does Brentford vs Liverpool kick off?
Brentford vs Liverpool kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Gtech Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brentford vs Liverpool?
Brentford 1 - 4 Liverpool.
Where is Brentford vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Gtech Community Stadium.
What competition is Brentford vs Liverpool part of?
Brentford vs Liverpool is a Premier League fixture (matchday 25) (England).
Who is favourite to win Brentford vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Brentford a 24% chance of winning, Liverpool a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Brentford and Liverpool will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brentford vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brentford's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Liverpool's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Brentford's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brentford's last 61 games and Liverpool's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
24%
4.14
22%
4.47
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Brentford xG
Total xG
3.39
2.06
Liverpool xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
13%
7.81
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
3%
32.29
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Brentford and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Brentford and 2.06 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Brentford have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 22W 18D 21L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Liverpool's form line: 35W 15D 11L from 61 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brentford.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Brentford have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 30 home games (13W 10D 7L).
On the road, Liverpool have gone 12W 8D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Liverpool's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Brentford are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.10 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brentford
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
Brentford (Home) vs Liverpool (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brentford
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Brentford vs Liverpool Form FAQs
What form are Brentford and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Brentford have gone 22W 18D 21L in their last 61 games (1.38 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 35W 15D 11L in their last 61 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brentford at home or Liverpool away?
Brentford's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brentford at home: 1.63 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Brentford or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brentford have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Liverpool in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jan 2022, when Liverpool won Liverpool 3-0 Brentford.
Brentford's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Brentford
1
Draws
7
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Brentford vs Liverpool H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Liverpool?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Brentford have won 2, Liverpool have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Brentford and Liverpool last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Brentford 1-2 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Brentford and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brentford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brentford at 70%, Liverpool at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Brentford and 63% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brentford home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brentford vs Liverpool Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brentford and Liverpool matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Brentford's games and 60% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brentford and Liverpool matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brentford's matches and 63% of Liverpool's.
Do Brentford and Liverpool matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Brentford's recent matches and 73% of Liverpool's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Brentford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Brentford 1-4 at Gtech Community Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.34 xG and Liverpool 2.06 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Liverpool outscored their 2.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against Liverpool attack 1.14 / defence 0.78, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brentford 24% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 53%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 54%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brentford's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Liverpool's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Brentford (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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