Grimsby 5-5 Notts County – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Grimsby at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grimsby face Notts County.

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Analysis & Preview

Notts County travel to Blundell Park to take on Grimsby in League Two (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Grimsby — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Grimsby have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Notts County stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Notts County have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grimsby at 1.30 PPG versus Notts County's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Grimsby's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Grimsby have won 0, Notts County 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Grimsby 2–3 Notts County — a Notts County win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Grimsby in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Notts County in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grimsby 69% and Notts County 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Grimsby 54% | Notts County 77%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 1.95 xG and Notts County 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 0.906 / defence 1.360 | Notts County attack 1.016 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.315. Notts County's defence rating of 1.394 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Grimsby's projected output up. Grimsby's defence rating of 1.360 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Notts County's projected output up. Data: built from Grimsby's last 72 games and Notts County's last 26.

Result probabilities: Grimsby 42% | Draw 22% | Notts County 37%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 2.39 | Draw 4.63 | Notts County 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.95 / 1.82) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Grimsby at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grimsby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Grimsby's last 10 home games and Notts County's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grimsby 80% (last 10 home games) | Notts County 80% (last 10 away games).

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