Crawley Town 0-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Salford City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Salford City make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crawley Town's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salford City have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salford City's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Crawley Town. A 1.20 PPG lead over Salford City (1.50 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Crawley Town edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Crawley Town 1–1 Salford City — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Salford City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 57% versus Salford City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Salford City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.90 xG and Salford City 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.155 / defence 1.131 | Salford City attack 0.914 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.315. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 72 games and Salford City's last 72.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 50% | Draw 23% | Salford City 27%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.00 | Draw 4.41 | Salford City 3.65. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Salford City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 80% (last 10 home games) | Salford City 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, matchday 28 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 50% | Draw 23% | Salford City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Crawley Town 1.90 / Salford City 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.155 / def 1.131 | Salford City attack 0.914 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Salford City xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Salford City FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Salford City kick off?
Crawley Town vs Salford City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Crawley Town 0 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Crawley Town vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Salford City part of?
Crawley Town vs Salford City is a League Two fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 50% chance of winning, Salford City a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Crawley Town and Salford City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (1.16) and Salford City's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (0.91x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 72 games and Salford City's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.41
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.25
1.36
Salford City xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
4%
24.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Salford City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.36 for Salford City, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 23W 16D 33L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Salford City's form line: 28W 14D 30L from 72 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.36 for Salford City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 36 home games (17W 7D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Salford City have gone 16W 5D 15L from their last 36 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.47 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Salford City
Blended
Crawley Town (Home) vs Salford City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Crawley Town vs Salford City Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Salford City in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 23W 16D 33L in their last 72 games (1.18 PPG), while Salford City have gone 28W 14D 30L in their last 72 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Salford City away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.61 PPG; Salford City away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
3
Draws
4
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Salford City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Salford City?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 2, Salford City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Salford City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Salford City 2-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Salford City?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Salford City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Crawley Town) and 58% (Salford City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Salford City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Salford City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Crawley Town's games and 58% of Salford City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crawley Town and Salford City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Crawley Town's matches and 58% of Salford City's.
Do Crawley Town and Salford City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 67% of Salford City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Crawley Town 0-1 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.90 xG and Salford City 1.36 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.16 / defence 1.13 against Salford City attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 50% | Draw 23% | Salford City 27%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Salford City 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salford City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.18 PPG, Salford City 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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