Bradford 0-2 Forest Green – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bradford face Forest Green.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Forest Green travel to University of Bradford Stadium to take on Bradford in League Two (matchday 38). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Bradford — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bradford at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Forest Green stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Forest Green have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bradford 1.60 PPG, Forest Green 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Bradford have won 2, Forest Green 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2023, ended Bradford 3–0 Forest Green — a Bradford win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bradford trading profile (last 82 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Forest Green trading profile (last 82 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 59%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 50% versus Forest Green 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 44% | Forest Green 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.59 xG and Forest Green 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.890 / defence 0.837 | Forest Green attack 0.793 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.288. Forest Green's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bradford's projected output up. Forest Green's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Bradford's last 81 games and Forest Green's last 36.
Result probabilities: Bradford 54% | Draw 26% | Forest Green 20%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.85 | Draw 3.81 | Forest Green 5.08. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bradford 50% (last 10 home games) | Forest Green 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Forest Green | Competition: League Two, matchday 38 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 54% | Draw 26% | Forest Green 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Bradford 1.59 / Forest Green 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.890 / def 0.837 | Forest Green attack 0.793 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Bradford (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Forest Green xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bradford vs Forest Green FAQs
What time does Bradford vs Forest Green kick off?
Bradford vs Forest Green kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 12 March 2024 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Forest Green?
Bradford 0 - 2 Forest Green.
Where is Bradford vs Forest Green being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Forest Green part of?
Bradford vs Forest Green is a League Two fixture (matchday 38) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Forest Green?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 54% chance of winning, Forest Green a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Forest Green?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bradford and Forest Green will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Bradford vs Forest Green have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bradford's attack rating (0.89) and Forest Green's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forest Green's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bradford's last 81 games and Forest Green's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.81
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.44
0.85
Forest Green xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
4%
24.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bradford vs Forest Green Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Forest Green?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bradford and Forest Green expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Bradford and 0.85 for Forest Green, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Forest Green?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 82 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 34W 26D 22L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Forest Green's form line: 13W 18D 51L from 82 games, 0.70 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Forest Green.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 40 home games (16W 17D 7L).
On the road, Forest Green have gone 4W 12D 24L from their last 40 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Forest Green are on 0.82 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Forest Green
Current Season
Bradford (Home) vs Forest Green (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bradford
Current Season
Forest Green
Current Season
❓ Bradford vs Forest Green Form FAQs
What form are Bradford and Forest Green in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 34W 26D 22L in their last 82 games (1.56 PPG), while Forest Green have gone 13W 18D 51L in their last 82 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Forest Green away?
Bradford's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.62 PPG; Forest Green away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Bradford or Forest Green been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Forest Green in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 12 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Nov 2023, when Bradford won Forest Green 0-3 Bradford.
Bradford's record when hosting Forest Green specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bradford
1
Draws
1
Forest Green
Recent Meetings
❓ Bradford vs Forest Green H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Forest Green?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bradford have won 2, Forest Green have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bradford and Forest Green last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 March 2024: Bradford 0-2 Forest Green.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Forest Green?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 58%, Forest Green 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bradford) and 45% (Forest Green).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Forest Green in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Forest Green away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bradford vs Forest Green Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bradford and Forest Green matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bradford's games and 55% of Forest Green's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bradford and Forest Green matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bradford's recent games and 45% of Forest Green's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Forest Green matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Bradford's recent matches and 72% of Forest Green's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forest Green cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bradford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forest Green beat Bradford 0-2 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.59 xG and Forest Green 0.85 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bradford fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Forest Green outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.89 / defence 0.84 against Forest Green attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 81/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 54% | Draw 26% | Forest Green 20%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Forest Green win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 44%, Forest Green 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Forest Green's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Forest Green winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forest Green (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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