Accrington ST 0-3 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Accrington ST face Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Accrington ST host Bradford at Wham Stadium in League Two (matchday 37). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Accrington ST — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Accrington ST's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bradford stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bradford's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Accrington ST) versus 1.30 (Bradford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Accrington ST have won 0, Bradford 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Accrington ST 0–1 Bradford — a Bradford win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (last 81 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bradford in-play tendencies (last 81 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 47% versus Bradford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 51% | Bradford 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.12 xG and Bradford 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.883 / defence 0.924 | Bradford attack 0.960 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.285. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 35 games and Bradford's last 80.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 34% | Draw 30% | Bradford 36%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.90 | Draw 3.35 | Bradford 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bradford at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 30% (last 10 home games) | Bradford 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, matchday 37 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 34% | Draw 30% | Bradford 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Accrington ST 1.12 / Bradford 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.883 / def 0.924 | Bradford attack 0.960 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Bradford (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bradford xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Bradford FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Bradford kick off?
Accrington ST vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Bradford?
Accrington ST 0 - 3 Bradford.
Where is Accrington ST vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Bradford part of?
Accrington ST vs Bradford is a League Two fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 34% chance of winning, Bradford a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Accrington ST and Bradford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Accrington ST vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 35 games and Bradford's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.35
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.26
1.14
Bradford xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Bradford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.14 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 81 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 24W 18D 39L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Bradford's form line: 33W 26D 22L from 81 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Accrington ST.
Venue Form
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 41 home games (15W 8D 18L).
On the road, Bradford have gone 17W 9D 15L from their last 41 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Accrington ST are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.30 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
Accrington ST (Home) vs Bradford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Accrington ST vs Bradford Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Bradford in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 24W 18D 39L in their last 81 games (1.11 PPG), while Bradford have gone 33W 26D 22L in their last 81 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Bradford away?
Bradford's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.29 PPG; Bradford away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bradford in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Mar 2024, when Bradford won Accrington ST 0-3 Bradford.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
1
Draws
3
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Bradford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Bradford?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 0, Bradford have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Bradford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Accrington ST 0-0 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 46%, Bradford 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Accrington ST) and 46% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Bradford in 37%; Accrington ST have failed to score in 32% of games; Bradford in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Bradford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Bradford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 44% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Accrington ST and Bradford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Accrington ST's recent games and 46% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Bradford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 68% of Bradford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bradford run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Accrington ST 0-3 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.12 xG and Bradford 1.14 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Accrington ST fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bradford outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Bradford attack 0.96 / defence 0.88, drawn from 35/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 34% | Draw 30% | Bradford 36%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 51%, Bradford 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (81 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bradford's trading profile (81 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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