Wrexham 3-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wrexham and Charlton meet at STōK Cae Ras in League One, Regular Season - 45. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Wrexham's overall League One record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at STōK Cae Ras, Wrexham have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at STōK Cae Ras.
Charlton have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Charlton have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wrexham lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wrexham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 47% versus Charlton 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 49% | Charlton 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.09 xG and Charlton 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.014 / defence 0.831 | Charlton attack 1.137 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.178. Data: 44 Wrexham games / 90 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 34% | Draw 30% | Charlton 36%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 50% | Charlton 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 34% | Draw 30% | Charlton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Wrexham 1.09 / Charlton 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.014 / def 0.831 | Charlton attack 1.137 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Charlton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Charlton xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Charlton kick off?
Wrexham vs Charlton kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Charlton?
Wrexham 3 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Wrexham vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Charlton part of?
Wrexham vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 34% chance of winning, Charlton a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Wrexham and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Wrexham 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Wrexham and Charlton in?
Wrexham (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Charlton (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wrexham's attack at 1.01x the league average against Charlton's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (1.14x) against Wrexham's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 44/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.36
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.20
1.11
Charlton xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.11 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wrexham come into this having played 90 games, going 51W 21D 18L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.50 PPG from 90 outings (35W 30D 25L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Wrexham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Charlton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Wrexham's home form reads 32W 8D 5L across 45 games on their own ground, a 2.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.22 points per game from 45 outings (13W 16D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wrexham are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.42 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Charlton in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 51W 21D 18L in their last 90 games (1.93 PPG), while Charlton have gone 35W 30D 25L in their last 90 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Charlton away?
Wrexham's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.31 PPG; Charlton away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Charlton in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Wrexham have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wrexham won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wrexham have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wrexham
1
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 3, Charlton have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Charlton 0-1 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Charlton?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 47%, Charlton 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Wrexham) and 44% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Charlton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Wrexham's recent matches and 56% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wrexham vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Wrexham's recent games and 44% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wrexham and Charlton tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Charlton in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wrexham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Charlton 3-0 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.09 xG and Charlton 1.11 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.01 / defence 0.83 against Charlton attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 34% | Draw 30% | Charlton 36%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 49%, Charlton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.