Stockport County vs Stevenage – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Stevenage in League One, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 7W 0D 3L from 10 League One appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Stockport County. A 0.50 PPG lead over Stevenage (2.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stockport County lead 4W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stockport County — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Stevenage — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 57% versus Stevenage 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 57% | Stevenage 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.69 xG and Stevenage 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.172 / defence 0.999 | Stevenage attack 0.937 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. Data: 60 Stockport County games / 58 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 48% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 25%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Stevenage 4.00. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 70% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 48% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Stockport County 1.69 / Stevenage 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.172 / def 0.999 | Stevenage attack 0.937 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Stevenage xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Stevenage kick off?
Stockport County vs Stevenage is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Edgeley Park.
Where is Stockport County vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Stevenage part of?
Stockport County vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 48% chance of winning, Stevenage a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Stockport County and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Stevenage?
Record (8 meetings): Stockport County 4W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 4W.
What form are Stockport County and Stevenage in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.17) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.94x) against Stockport County's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 60/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.67
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.87
1.18
Stevenage xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
5%
21.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.18 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 30W 12D 18L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage's form line: 25W 16D 19L from 60 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Stockport County against 1.52 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 1.93 PPG from 30 outings (18W 4D 8L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 8W 8D 14L from 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stockport County are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.10 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 30W 12D 18L in their last 60 games (1.70 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 25W 16D 19L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Stevenage away?
Stockport County's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.93 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stevenage in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stockport County
0
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Stevenage?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 4, Stevenage have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 63%, Stevenage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Stockport County) and 43% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Stevenage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Stockport County's games and 50% of Stevenage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Stockport County's recent games and 43% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Stevenage tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.