Burton Albion 2-2 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Peterborough at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Peterborough meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Peterborough (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Burton Albion against 0.90 for Peterborough. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Burton Albion, 3 for Peterborough and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (68 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Peterborough — key trading statistics (68 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 46% versus Peterborough 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 47% | Peterborough 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.18 xG and Peterborough 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.697 / defence 1.249 | Peterborough attack 1.027 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.162. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Burton Albion games / 68 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 30% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 44%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Peterborough 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 40% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 30% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Burton Albion 1.18 / Peterborough 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.697 / def 1.249 | Peterborough attack 1.027 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Peterborough xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Peterborough kick off?
Burton Albion vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 1 January 2025 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Burton Albion 2 - 2 Peterborough.
Where is Burton Albion vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Peterborough part of?
Burton Albion vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 30% chance of winning, Peterborough a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Burton Albion and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Peterborough?
Record (5 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 1 | Peterborough 3W.
What form are Burton Albion and Peterborough in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Peterborough (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.70) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.03x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
30%
3.38
26%
3.81
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.67
1.49
Peterborough xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
7%
14.99
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.49 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 14W 17D 37L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough's form line: 30W 13D 25L from 68 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 0.91 PPG from 32 outings (8W 5D 19L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 13W 5D 14L from 32 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.87 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 66%.
Last 68 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 14W 17D 37L in their last 68 games (0.87 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 30W 13D 25L in their last 68 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Peterborough away?
Peterborough's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 0.91 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 4-0 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
3
Draws
4
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Peterborough?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Peterborough have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Peterborough 1-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 47%, Peterborough 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Burton Albion) and 66% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Burton Albion's games and 66% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Burton Albion's matches and 66% of Peterborough's.
Do Burton Albion and Peterborough tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Peterborough share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Burton Albion and Peterborough drew 2-2 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.18 xG and Peterborough 1.49 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.70 / defence 1.25 against Peterborough attack 1.03 / defence 1.31, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 30% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 44%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 47%, Peterborough 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (68 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (68 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.