Ipswich 0-3 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Portman Road plays host to Ipswich versus Charlton in Championship, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ipswich have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charlton (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Charlton have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Ipswich, 1 for Charlton and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 6–0 with Ipswich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 64% versus Charlton 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 57% | Charlton 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.97 xG and Charlton 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.463 / defence 1.063 | Charlton attack 0.700 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.150. Ipswich carry an above-average attack strength of 1.463 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Ipswich games / 10 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 63% | Draw 22% | Charlton 15%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Charlton 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ipswich at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Ipswich 70% | Charlton 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 63% | Draw 22% | Charlton 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Ipswich 1.97 / Charlton 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.463 / def 1.063 | Charlton attack 0.700 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Charlton xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Charlton kick off?
Ipswich vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 October 2025 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Charlton?
Ipswich 0 - 3 Charlton.
Where is Ipswich vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Charlton part of?
Ipswich vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 63% chance of winning, Charlton a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ipswich and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Charlton?
Record (4 meetings): Ipswich 2W | Draws 1 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Charlton in?
Ipswich (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.70x) against Ipswich's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.65
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.82
0.86
Charlton xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
2%
46.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Ipswich and 0.86 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Charlton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ipswich's recent record stands at 7W 14D 26L from 47 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 26W 11D 10L across 47 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charlton by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ipswich heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 4W 6D 13L from 23 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 9W 6D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charlton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ipswich are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.40 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Charlton in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Charlton in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 7W 14D 26L in their last 47 games (0.74 PPG), while Charlton have gone 26W 11D 10L in their last 47 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 0.78 PPG; Charlton away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Charlton in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ipswich won 6-0 on 15 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ipswich have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ipswich
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Charlton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Charlton 1-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Charlton?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 61%, Charlton 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Ipswich) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Charlton in 44%; Ipswich have failed to score in 30% of games; Charlton in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Ipswich's recent matches and 35% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Ipswich's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Charlton tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Charlton in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charlton run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ipswich.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Ipswich 0-3 at Portman Road, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.97 xG and Charlton 0.86 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ipswich fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Charlton outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.46 / defence 1.06 against Charlton attack 0.70 / defence 1.11, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 63% | Draw 22% | Charlton 15%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 57%, Charlton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.