Derby 1-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derby (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Derby face West Brom.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 29 as Derby welcome West Brom to Pride Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 January 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Pride Park, Derby have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
West Brom — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
West Brom away from home this season: 0W 0D 10L from 10 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Derby carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Derby: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for West Brom, with 1 draws across those contests.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Derby winning.
The historical record gives Derby a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
West Brom in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 55% versus West Brom 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 43% | West Brom 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.40 xG and West Brom 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.880 / defence 1.089 | West Brom attack 0.818 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.149. Data: 74 Derby games / 74 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 28% | West Brom 27%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | West Brom 3.70. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Derby 70% | West Brom 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 28% | West Brom 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Derby 1.40 / West Brom 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.880 / def 1.089 | West Brom attack 0.818 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Derby (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.02
West Brom xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs West Brom kick off?
Derby vs West Brom kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 23 January 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs West Brom?
Derby 1 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Derby vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs West Brom part of?
Derby vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 45% chance of winning, West Brom a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Derby and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and West Brom?
Record (5 meetings): Derby 4W | Draws 1 | West Brom 0W.
What form are Derby and West Brom in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. West Brom (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.88x the league average against West Brom's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.51
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Derby xG
Total xG
2.42
1.02
West Brom xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Derby and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Derby and 1.02 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 74 games, going 24W 19D 31L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 1.28 PPG from 74 outings (24W 23D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.23 PPG, West Brom on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 13W 10D 14L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, West Brom have taken 0.86 points per game from 37 outings (7W 11D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.19 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and West Brom in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 24W 19D 31L in their last 74 games (1.23 PPG), while West Brom have gone 24W 23D 27L in their last 74 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or West Brom away?
Derby's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.32 PPG; West Brom away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Derby
2
Draws
0
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and West Brom?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 4, West Brom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Derby 1-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Derby and West Brom?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 46%, West Brom 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Derby) and 46% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Derby have failed to score in 27% of games; West Brom in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Derby's recent matches and 62% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Derby's recent games and 46% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and West Brom tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, West Brom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and West Brom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park, Regular Season - 29, as Derby and West Brom drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.40 xG and West Brom 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against West Brom attack 0.82 / defence 1.19, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 45% | Draw 28% | West Brom 27%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 43%, West Brom 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
West Brom's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.23 PPG, West Brom 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.