Charlton 1-1 Millwall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Millwall at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Millwall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Millwall travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Charlton have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at The Valley this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Millwall have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Millwall have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Millwall away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Charlton) versus 1.80 (Millwall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Millwall in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 42% versus Millwall 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 50% | Millwall 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.83 xG and Millwall 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.707 / defence 1.003 | Millwall attack 0.964 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.185. Charlton's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Charlton games / 50 Millwall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 27% | Draw 31% | Millwall 43%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Millwall 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Millwall at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Millwall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 40% | Millwall 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 27% | Draw 31% | Millwall 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Charlton 0.83 / Millwall 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.707 / def 1.003 | Millwall attack 0.964 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Millwall (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Millwall xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Millwall kick off?
Charlton vs Millwall kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Millwall?
Charlton 1 - 1 Millwall.
Where is Charlton vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Millwall part of?
Charlton vs Millwall is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 27% chance of winning, Millwall a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Charlton and Millwall will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Millwall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Millwall in?
Charlton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Millwall (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.71x the league average against Millwall's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Millwall's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
27%
3.76
31%
3.28
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.98
1.15
Millwall xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Charlton and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Charlton and 1.15 for Millwall, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 25W 12D 13L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Millwall's form line: 20W 12D 18L from 50 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Millwall, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.74 PPG, Millwall on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 2.16 PPG from 25 outings (16W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Charlton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Millwall have gone 8W 8D 9L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 1.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Millwall
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Millwall in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 25W 12D 13L in their last 50 games (1.74 PPG), while Millwall have gone 20W 12D 18L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Millwall away?
Charlton's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 2.16 PPG; Millwall away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Charlton or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Millwall in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Charlton
1
Draws
1
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Millwall?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 0, Millwall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Millwall last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Millwall 4-0 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Millwall?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 48%, Millwall 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Charlton) and 32% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Millwall in 36%; Millwall in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Millwall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Charlton's recent matches and 48% of Millwall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Millwall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Charlton's recent games and 32% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Millwall tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Millwall in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Millwall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 5, as Charlton and Millwall drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.83 xG and Millwall 1.15 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.71 / defence 1.00 against Millwall attack 0.96 / defence 0.89, drawn from 4/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 27% | Draw 31% | Millwall 43%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 50%, Millwall 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Millwall's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.74 PPG, Millwall 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.