Zlin 2-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 38%, yet in-form Slovácko provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zlin vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovácko make the trip to Stadion Letná to face Zlin in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Letná this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slovácko (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovácko are 0.80 PPG clear of Zlin in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Slovácko have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Zlin's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Slovácko winning.
It is worth noting that Slovácko have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Zlin — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Slovácko — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 64% versus Slovácko 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 58% | Slovácko 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.55 xG and Slovácko 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.144 / defence 1.258 | Slovácko attack 0.946 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.257. Data: 50 Zlin games / 50 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 38% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 36%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Slovácko 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slovácko (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 70% | Slovácko 20%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 38% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Zlin 1.55 / Slovácko 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.144 / def 1.258 | Slovácko attack 0.946 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Zlin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Slovácko xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Slovácko kick off?
Zlin vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Slovácko?
Zlin 2 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Zlin vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Slovácko part of?
Zlin vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 38% chance of winning, Slovácko a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Zlin and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovácko?
Record (5 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 0 | Slovácko 4W.
What form are Zlin and Slovácko in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Slovácko (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.14x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (0.95x) against Zlin's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.90
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.05
1.50
Slovácko xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Zlin and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Zlin and 1.50 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 11W 19D 25L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko's form line: 23W 16D 16L from 55 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 9W 7D 10L from 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.24 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slovácko in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 11W 19D 25L in their last 55 games (0.95 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 23W 16D 16L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Slovácko away?
Zlin's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.35 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Zlin or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Slovácko in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovácko won 3-0 on 18 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Zlin
1
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovácko?
From 9 meetings on record, Zlin have won 3, Slovácko have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Zlin 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 73%, Slovácko 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Zlin) and 46% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Zlin's games and 42% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Zlin's recent games and 46% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Slovácko tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Slovácko 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Slovácko 2-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.55 xG and Slovácko 1.50 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.14 / defence 1.26 against Slovácko attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 38% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 36%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 58%, Slovácko 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.