Slovácko 1-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Pardubice at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
Pardubice — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Slovácko are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Slovácko, 1 for Pardubice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Slovácko winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Pardubice trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 43% versus Pardubice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 41% | Pardubice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.87 xG and Pardubice 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.119 / defence 0.857 | Pardubice attack 0.909 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.202. Data: 49 Slovácko games / 48 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 59% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 18%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Pardubice 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 40% | Pardubice 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 59% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Slovácko 1.87 / Pardubice 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.119 / def 0.857 | Pardubice attack 0.909 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Pardubice xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Pardubice kick off?
Slovácko vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Slovácko 1 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Slovácko vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Pardubice part of?
Slovácko vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 59% chance of winning, Pardubice a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Slovácko and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Record (4 meetings): Slovácko 2W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 1W.
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 1.12x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.49
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.80
0.94
Pardubice xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
3%
35.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.94 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 16D 15L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.06 PPG from 54 outings (16W 9D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 14W 8D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (7W 3D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.02 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 23W 16D 15L in their last 54 games (1.57 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 16W 9D 29L in their last 54 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Pardubice away?
Slovácko's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.85 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Pardubice in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Slovácko
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 41%, Pardubice 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovácko) and 52% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Pardubice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Slovácko's recent matches and 52% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovácko's recent games and 52% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Slovácko 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Slovácko 1-2 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.87 xG and Pardubice 0.94 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slovácko fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Pardubice outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.12 / defence 0.86 against Pardubice attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 59% | Draw 22% | Pardubice 18%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 41%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Pardubice's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Pardubice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.