Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Zlin welcome FK Jablonec to Stadion Letna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin at Stadion Letna this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. FK Jablonec's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Zlin's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Zlin, 1 for FK Jablonec and 7 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Zlin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 50% versus FK Jablonec 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zlin 50% | FK Jablonec 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.58 xG and FK Jablonec 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.026 / defence 1.228 | FK Jablonec attack 0.927 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.118. Data: 26 Zlin games / 56 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 43% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 29%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | FK Jablonec 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Zlin 60% | FK Jablonec 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 43% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Zlin 1.58 / FK Jablonec 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.026 / def 1.228 | FK Jablonec attack 0.927 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Zlin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.27
FK Jablonec xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Zlin 0 - 3 FK Jablonec.
Where is Zlin vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs FK Jablonec part of?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 43% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Zlin and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
Record (9 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 7 | FK Jablonec 1W.
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zlin's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.64
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.85
1.27
FK Jablonec xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
6%
16.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Zlin and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Zlin and 1.27 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin's recent record stands at 8W 7D 11L from 26 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 7L across 26 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FK Jablonec by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 4W 4D 5L from 13 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 7W 1D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.23 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 13W 6D 7L in their last 26 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.23 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Zlin or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
7
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 62%, FK Jablonec 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Zlin) and 23% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 46%; FK Jablonec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Zlin's recent matches and 23% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Zlin's recent games and 23% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Zlin 0-3 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.58 xG and FK Jablonec 1.27 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Zlin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.03 / defence 1.23 against FK Jablonec attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 43% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 29%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 50%, FK Jablonec 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.