Zbrojovka Brno 0-4 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Sparta Praha travel to ADAX INVEST Arena to take on Zbrojovka Brno. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 outings — a 1.56 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.89 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at ADAX INVEST Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.56 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at ADAX INVEST Arena this season.
Sparta Praha — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zbrojovka Brno 1.56 PPG, Sparta Praha 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Zbrojovka Brno trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Sparta Praha trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zbrojovka Brno 78% and Sparta Praha 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zbrojovka Brno 89% | Sparta Praha 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.21 xG and Sparta Praha 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.950 / defence 1.364 | Sparta Praha attack 1.154 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.355. Data: 9 Zbrojovka Brno games / 40 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 19% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 56%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Praha 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Zbrojovka Brno 80% | Sparta Praha 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: ADAX INVEST Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 19% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.21 / Sparta Praha 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.950 / def 1.364 | Sparta Praha attack 1.154 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Sparta Praha xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha?
Zbrojovka Brno 0 - 4 Sparta Praha.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 19% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Sparta Praha in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.89 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zbrojovka Brno's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
19%
5.40
25%
3.96
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
3.34
2.13
Sparta Praha xG
5.40
19%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
12%
8.43
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
2%
45.53
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 2.13 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zbrojovka Brno's recent record stands at 4W 2D 3L from 9 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 0L across 9 games — 1.89 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zbrojovka Brno on 1.56 PPG, Sparta Praha on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zbrojovka Brno have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.56 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.56 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Sparta Praha in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 4W 5D 0L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 1.00 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Zbrojovka Brno or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zbrojovka Brno have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sparta Praha won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zbrojovka Brno's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Zbrojovka Brno
0
Draws
2
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Sparta Praha?
From 3 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Zbrojovka Brno 3-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zbrojovka Brno at 75%, Sparta Praha at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Zbrojovka Brno and 50% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 75% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 50% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Zbrojovka Brno.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Zbrojovka Brno 0-4 at ADAX INVEST Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.21 xG and Sparta Praha 2.13 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Zbrojovka Brno fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 2.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.95 / defence 1.36 against Sparta Praha attack 1.15 / defence 0.86, drawn from 9/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 19% | Draw 25% | Sparta Praha 56%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 89%, Sparta Praha 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zbrojovka Brno 1.56 PPG, Sparta Praha 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.