Teplice 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Hradec Králové have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against Teplice's 1 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.
It is worth noting that Hradec Králové have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Hradec Králové 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 41% | Hradec Králové 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.14 xG and Hradec Králové 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.852 / defence 0.911 | Hradec Králové attack 1.241 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.207. Hradec Králové have an above-average attack strength of 1.241 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Teplice games / 59 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 30% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 41%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Hradec Králové 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 40% | Hradec Králové 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 30% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Teplice 1.14 / Hradec Králové 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.852 / def 0.911 | Hradec Králové attack 1.241 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Hradec Králové xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Teplice 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Teplice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 30% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Teplice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Record (7 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 6W.
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.85x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
30%
3.31
29%
3.47
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.50
1.36
Hradec Králové xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Teplice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Teplice and 1.36 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 19W 16D 28L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Hradec Králové's form line: 24W 17D 22L from 63 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.16 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (12W 8D 11L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 9W 8D 14L from 31 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.19 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 19W 16D 28L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 24W 17D 22L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Teplice's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.42 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Teplice or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Hradec Králové won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Teplice
1
Draws
7
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 45%, Hradec Králové 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Teplice) and 45% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 32%; Teplice have failed to score in 26% of games; Hradec Králové in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Teplice's recent matches and 42% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Teplice's recent games and 45% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.14 xG and Hradec Králové 1.36 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.85 / defence 0.91 against Hradec Králové attack 1.24 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 30% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 41%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 41%, Hradec Králové 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.16 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.