Slovan Liberec 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 meet at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga (Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Slovan Liberec's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Slovan Liberec have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Bohemians 1905 have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Bohemians 1905 away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Slovan Liberec. A 0.90 PPG lead over Bohemians 1905 (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to Bohemians 1905, who have 3 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2025, ended Slovan Liberec 1–4 Bohemians 1905 — a Bohemians 1905 win.

Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Data

Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 51% versus Bohemians 1905 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 49% | Bohemians 1905 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Slovan Liberec surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Bohemians 1905 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.38 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.049 / defence 0.958 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.854 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 60 games and Bohemians 1905's last 60.

Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 46% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 27%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.19 | Draw 3.62 | Bohemians 1905 3.75. Slovan Liberec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), but Slovan Liberec carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 30% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 away games).

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