Bohemians 1905 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga (Middle Play-offs - Final). Kick-off is Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Hradec Králové have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Hradec Králové have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Hradec Králové and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Feb 2025, ended Bohemians 1905 2–2 Hradec Králové — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (last 67 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (last 67 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 52% versus Hradec Králové 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Hradec Králové 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.14 xG and Hradec Králové 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.856 / defence 1.072 | Hradec Králové attack 1.129 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 60 games and Hradec Králové's last 60.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 44%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.39 | Draw 3.81 | Hradec Králové 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Hradec Králové's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 60% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.14 / Hradec Králové 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.856 / def 1.072 | Hradec Králové attack 1.129 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Hradec Králové xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (Middle Play-offs - Final) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 60 games and Hradec Králové's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
30%
3.39
26%
3.81
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.60
1.46
Hradec Králové xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
7%
14.53
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.46 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 18W 22D 27L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Hradec Králové's form line: 26W 17D 24L from 67 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.13 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.15 PPG from their last 34 home games (9W 12D 13L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 10W 8D 16L from their last 34 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.19 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 18W 22D 27L in their last 67 games (1.13 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 26W 17D 24L in their last 67 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Hradec Králové away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.15 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won Bohemians 1905 0-3 Hradec Králové.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 53%, Hradec Králové 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 44% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 32%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 38% of games; Hradec Králové in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 38% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 44% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 59% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Middle Play-offs - Final, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.14 xG and Hradec Králové 1.46 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Hradec Králové attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 44%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.