Pardubice 1-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to CFIG Arena to face Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 2W 4D 4L at CFIG Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Pardubice are significantly better at CFIG Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 1.80 PPG clear of Pardubice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.20 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 41% versus Sparta Praha 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 41% | Sparta Praha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.87 xG and Sparta Praha 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.759 / defence 0.935 | Sparta Praha attack 1.098 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.207. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Pardubice games / 59 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 25% | Draw 31% | Sparta Praha 44%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Sparta Praha 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 30% | Sparta Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 25% | Draw 31% | Sparta Praha 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Pardubice 0.87 / Sparta Praha 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.759 / def 0.935 | Sparta Praha attack 1.098 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Sparta Praha xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Pardubice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Pardubice 1 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha part of?
Pardubice vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 25% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pardubice and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
Record (7 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Praha 7W.
What form are Pardubice and Sparta Praha in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.76x the league average against Sparta Praha's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.10x) against Pardubice's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
25%
4.01
31%
3.20
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.11
1.24
Sparta Praha xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
7%
13.87
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 15.0 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.24 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Pardubice have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 15W 14D 35L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Sparta Praha's form line: 45W 11D 8L from 64 games, 2.28 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.06 PPG from 31 outings (8W 9D 14L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 21W 5D 5L from 31 away games — 2.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.12 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 61%.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
Sparta Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 15W 14D 35L in their last 64 games (0.92 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 45W 11D 8L in their last 64 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.06 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-2 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pardubice
0
Draws
9
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Sparta Praha 2-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 42%, Sparta Praha 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pardubice) and 58% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pardubice's recent matches and 61% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pardubice's recent games and 58% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Pardubice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Pardubice 1-2 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.87 xG and Sparta Praha 1.24 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.76 / defence 0.94 against Sparta Praha attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 25% | Draw 31% | Sparta Praha 44%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 41%, Sparta Praha 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.