Karviná 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Karviná take on Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Karviná welcome Plzen to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Karviná stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's home record at Městský Stadión: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský Stadión.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Karviná, 3 for Plzen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–5 with Plzen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Karviná in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 52% versus Plzen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 56% | Plzen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.00 xG and Plzen 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.874 / defence 0.824 | Plzen attack 1.095 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.163. Plzen's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Karviná games / 47 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 32% | Draw 34% | Plzen 34%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Plzen 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 40% | Plzen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 32% | Draw 34% | Plzen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Karviná 1.00 / Plzen 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.874 / def 0.824 | Plzen attack 1.095 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Plzen xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Plzen kick off?
Karviná vs Plzen kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Plzen?
Karviná 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Karviná vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Plzen part of?
Karviná vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 32% chance of winning, Plzen a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Karviná and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Plzen?
Record (5 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 1 | Plzen 3W.
What form are Karviná and Plzen in?
Karviná (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.87x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
34%
2.92
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.05
1.05
Plzen xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
12%
8.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Karviná and 1.05 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná's recent record stands at 15W 12D 25L from 52 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 32W 11D 9L across 52 games — 2.06 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Karviná heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 9W 7D 9L from 25 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 13W 6D 6L across 25 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.02 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Plzen in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 15W 12D 25L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Plzen have gone 32W 11D 9L in their last 52 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.36 PPG; Plzen away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Karviná or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Plzen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Karviná
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Plzen?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 1, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Karviná 0-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 44%, Plzen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Karviná) and 56% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 36% of games; Plzen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Karviná's recent matches and 56% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Karviná's recent games and 56% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Plzen tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Plzen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Karviná 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Karviná 1-2 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.00 xG and Plzen 1.05 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.87 / defence 0.82 against Plzen attack 1.09 / defence 0.78, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 32% | Draw 34% | Plzen 34%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 56%, Plzen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.