Karviná 1-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FK Jablonec (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Karviná face FK Jablonec.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and FK Jablonec meet at Town Stadium Karvina in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Karviná (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Town Stadium Karvina this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
FK Jablonec have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
FK Jablonec arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
FK Jablonec hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 0–5 with FK Jablonec winning.
It is worth noting that FK Jablonec have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 62% versus FK Jablonec 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 65% | FK Jablonec 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.01 xG and FK Jablonec 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.089 / defence 1.033 | FK Jablonec attack 0.999 / defence 0.666. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.220. FK Jablonec's defence strength of 0.666 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Karviná games / 38 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 29% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 42%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | FK Jablonec 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 50% | FK Jablonec 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 29% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Karviná 1.01 / FK Jablonec 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.089 / def 1.033 | FK Jablonec attack 0.999 / def 0.666 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.26
FK Jablonec xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Karviná vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Karviná 1 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Karviná vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Karviná vs FK Jablonec part of?
Karviná vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 29% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Karviná and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and FK Jablonec?
Record (8 meetings): Karviná 1W | Draws 3 | FK Jablonec 4W.
What form are Karviná and FK Jablonec in?
Karviná (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karviná's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.00x) against Karviná's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
29%
3.43
29%
3.42
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.27
1.26
FK Jablonec xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Karviná and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Karviná and 1.26 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 8D 17L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.92 PPG from 40 outings (23W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Karviná — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Karviná's home form reads 8W 4D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.75 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 15W 8D 17L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 23W 8D 9L in their last 40 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.40 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Karviná or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Karviná
3
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 50%, FK Jablonec 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Karviná) and 45% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 40%; Karviná have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Karviná's recent matches and 45% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Karviná's recent games and 45% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Karviná 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Karviná 1-2 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.01 xG and FK Jablonec 1.26 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against FK Jablonec attack 1.00 / defence 0.67, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 29% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 42%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 65%, FK Jablonec 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.