Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Hradec Králové welcome Sigma Olomouc to FINEP Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's home record at FINEP Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at FINEP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sigma Olomouc's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Hradec Králové's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Hradec Králové have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Sigma Olomouc have managed just 2 wins.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
The historical record gives Hradec Králové a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Sigma Olomouc 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Sigma Olomouc 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.38 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.977 / defence 1.154 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.964 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Data: 43 Hradec Králové games / 43 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 34% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 36%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Sigma Olomouc 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Hradec Králové dominate the H2H record, yet Sigma Olomouc are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 70% | Sigma Olomouc 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 34% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Hradec Králové 1.38 / Sigma Olomouc 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.977 / def 1.154 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.964 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Sigma Olomouc xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at FINEP Arena.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 34% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (10 meetings): Hradec Králové 5W | Draws 3 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.98x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
34%
2.94
30%
3.36
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.81
1.43
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.43 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 20W 10D 17L from 47 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 15L across 47 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.49 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 13W 5D 6L from 24 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 9W 5D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.43 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 20W 10D 17L in their last 47 games (1.49 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.83 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 5, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Sigma Olomouc 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hradec Králové) and 58% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hradec Králové's games and 67% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Hradec Králové's matches and 58% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Hradec Králové and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.