Hradec Králové 2-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Karviná at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Karviná have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Karviná have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Hradec Králové are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Hradec Králové, 1 for Karviná and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Hradec Králové 0–1 Karviná — a Karviná win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Karviná in-play tendencies (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 52% versus Karviná 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 36% | Karviná 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and Karviná 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.950 / defence 0.899 | Karviná attack 0.771 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.236. Karviná's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Hradec Králové's last 55 games and Karviná's last 25.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 28% | Karviná 21%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.95 | Draw 3.57 | Karviná 4.84. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hradec Králové 60% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 28% | Karviná 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Hradec Králové 1.50 / Karviná 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.950 / def 0.899 | Karviná attack 0.771 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Karviná xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná FAQs
What time does Hradec Králové vs Karviná kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Hradec Králové 2 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Karviná part of?
Hradec Králové vs Karviná is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 51% chance of winning, Karviná a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hradec Králové and Karviná will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Hradec Králové vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.95x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hradec Králové's last 55 games and Karviná's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.57
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.35
0.86
Karviná xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.86 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 9D 10L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 0.76 PPG from 25 outings (5W 4D 16L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.08 PPG, Karviná on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 5W 4D 3L across their last 12 home games, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.50 points per game from their last 12 away games (1W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.00 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Karviná
Blended
Hradec Králové (Home) vs Karviná (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hradec Králové
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná Form FAQs
What form are Hradec Králové and Karviná in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while Karviná have gone 5W 4D 16L in their last 25 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Karviná away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.58 PPG; Karviná away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Karviná in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 23 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karviná have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 May 2025, when Hradec Králové won Karviná 0-4 Hradec Králové.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hradec Králové have won 4, Karviná have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Karviná last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2025: Karviná 4-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Karviná?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Karviná see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 58%, Karviná 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hradec Králové) and 50% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Karviná in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hradec Králové vs Karviná Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hradec Králové and Karviná matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 50% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hradec Králové and Karviná matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 50% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Karviná matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 58% of Karviná's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Karviná 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Karviná 2-1 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and Karviná 0.86 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Karviná attack 0.77 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 51% | Draw 28% | Karviná 21%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 36%, Karviná 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Karviná's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.08 PPG, Karviná 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.