České Budějovice 0-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 38%, yet in-form Sparta Praha provide a compelling counter-argument — this České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Sparta Praha meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
České Budějovice (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sparta Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sparta Praha, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–4 with Sparta Praha winning.
It is worth noting that Sparta Praha have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 53% versus Sparta Praha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 65% | Sparta Praha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.54 xG and Sparta Praha 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.009 / defence 1.034 | Sparta Praha attack 1.167 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.247. Data: 55 České Budějovice games / 55 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 38% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 36%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Praha 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sparta Praha (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 40% | Sparta Praha 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 38% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG České Budějovice 1.54 / Sparta Praha 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.009 / def 1.034 | Sparta Praha attack 1.167 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Sparta Praha xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
České Budějovice 0 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha part of?
České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 38% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both České Budějovice and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sparta Praha?
Record (5 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 4W.
What form are České Budějovice and Sparta Praha in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sparta Praha's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.17x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.92
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.05
1.50
Sparta Praha xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.50 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 16W 8D 33L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 41W 12D 4L from 57 games, 2.37 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.39 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (12W 3D 13L). That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 18W 7D 3L from 28 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.25 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 16W 8D 33L in their last 57 games (0.98 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 41W 12D 4L in their last 57 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.39 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.18 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Praha have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 4-0 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Sparta Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sparta Praha 2-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 46%, Sparta Praha 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (České Budějovice) and 54% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 39%; České Budějovice have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 54% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of České Budějovice's matches and 54% of Sparta Praha's.
Do České Budějovice and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Praha defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat České Budějovice 0-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.54 xG and Sparta Praha 1.50 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. České Budějovice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Sparta Praha attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 38% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 36%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sparta Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 65%, Sparta Praha 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.