Artis vs FK Jablonec – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Artis vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees FK Jablonec travel to Town Stadium Karvina to take on Artis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Artis have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Artis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Artis at Town Stadium Karvina this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 home games — 0.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.29 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Town Stadium Karvina this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Artis 0.90 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Artis trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
FK Jablonec trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Artis 57% versus FK Jablonec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Artis 71% | FK Jablonec 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 0.86 xG and FK Jablonec 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.745 / defence 1.445 | FK Jablonec attack 0.930 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Artis's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Artis games / 43 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 16% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 56%. Fair-value odds: Artis 6.25 | Draw 3.57 | FK Jablonec 1.79. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Artis 57% | FK Jablonec 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 16% | Draw 28% | FK Jablonec 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Artis 0.86 / FK Jablonec 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.745 / def 1.445 | FK Jablonec attack 0.930 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Artis xG
Expected Goals
1.73
FK Jablonec xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Artis vs FK Jablonec is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Town Stadium Karvina.
Where is Artis vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Artis vs FK Jablonec part of?
Artis vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 16% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 56% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Artis and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and FK Jablonec in?
Artis (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Artis's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Artis's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
16%
6.11
28%
3.59
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Artis xG
Total xG
2.59
1.73
FK Jablonec xG
6.11
16%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
3%
34.30
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Artis and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Artis and 1.73 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Artis come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 4D 8L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Artis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (7W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Artis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Artis's home form reads 0W 2D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Artis are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.29 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 7W 2D 5L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.33 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.67 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Artis 50%, FK Jablonec 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Artis) and 17% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 33%; Artis have failed to score in 50% of games; FK Jablonec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Artis's recent matches and 33% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Artis vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Artis's recent games and 17% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Artis and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.