Wuhan Zall 1-1 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Zall at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Zall host Qingdao Huanghai at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Super League, Relegation Round - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 28 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Zall — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium this season: 2W 5D 2L from 9 home games — 1.22 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Qingdao Huanghai stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Super League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Huanghai's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 7L across 9 road games this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Wuhan Zall have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wuhan Zall have won 1, Qingdao Huanghai 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 5–2 with Wuhan Zall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Qingdao Huanghai in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 63% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 63% versus Qingdao Huanghai 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 42% | Qingdao Huanghai 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.47 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.914 / defence 1.150 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.677 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Qingdao Huanghai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.388 — this is suppressing Wuhan Zall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Wuhan Zall games / 14 Qingdao Huanghai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 46% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Huanghai 24%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Qingdao Huanghai 4.17. Wuhan Zall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Zall at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Zall 78% | Qingdao Huanghai 22%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 46% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Huanghai 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.47 / Qingdao Huanghai 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.914 / def 1.150 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.677 / def 1.388 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Qingdao Huanghai xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Wuhan Zall 1 - 1 Qingdao Huanghai.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 46% chance of winning, Qingdao Huanghai a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Qingdao Huanghai will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Qingdao Huanghai?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Zall 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Huanghai 0W.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Qingdao Huanghai in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Zall's attack at 0.91x the league average against Qingdao Huanghai's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Huanghai's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.28
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.47
1.00
Qingdao Huanghai xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
5%
18.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Qingdao Huanghai expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.00 for Qingdao Huanghai, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Wuhan Zall have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 10D 6L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Huanghai's form line: 3W 1D 15L from 19 games, 0.53 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Qingdao Huanghai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wuhan Zall are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Huanghai.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wuhan Zall have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L).
On the road, Qingdao Huanghai have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Zall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Huanghai are on 0.58 scored and 2.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Qingdao Huanghai in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 3W 10D 6L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Qingdao Huanghai have gone 3W 1D 15L in their last 19 (0.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Qingdao Huanghai away?
Wuhan Zall's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.22 PPG; Qingdao Huanghai away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wuhan Zall
1
Draws
0
Qingdao Huanghai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Qingdao Huanghai?
From 2 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 1, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Qingdao Huanghai last play each other?
They last met on 28 December 2021, when Wuhan Zall 1-1 Qingdao Huanghai.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Qingdao Huanghai?
Wuhan Zall have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Qingdao Huanghai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Zall 78%, Qingdao Huanghai 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Wuhan Zall) and 44% (Qingdao Huanghai).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Huanghai in 78%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Qingdao Huanghai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Qingdao Huanghai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 78% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 22% of Qingdao Huanghai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Qingdao Huanghai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 44% of Qingdao Huanghai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and Qingdao Huanghai tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Qingdao Huanghai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Zall and Qingdao Huanghai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Relegation Round - 6, as Wuhan Zall and Qingdao Huanghai drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.47 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 1.00 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.91 / defence 1.15 against Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.68 / defence 1.39, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 46% | Draw 31% | Qingdao Huanghai 24%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 42%, Qingdao Huanghai 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Zall arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Qingdao Huanghai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.