Shanghai Shenhua 1-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. meet at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Super League, Relegation Round - 6. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua at Suzhou City Sports Centre this season: 5W 3D 1L from 9 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1W 2D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.56 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.56 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Shanghai Shenhua, 1.40 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 0W, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shanghai Shenhua 58% and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 47% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.38 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.892 / defence 1.072 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.843 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Shanghai Shenhua games / 14 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Draw 31% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 56% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 89% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Draw 31% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.38 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.892 / def 1.072 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.843 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 28 December 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 40% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (1 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 0W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.84x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.24
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.54
1.16
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.16 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Shanghai Shenhua have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 9W 5D 5L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 5W 5D 9L from 19 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (5W 3D 1L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.16 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.00 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 0-5 on 22 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shanghai Shenhua
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-5 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Shanghai Shenhua, 89% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Shanghai Shenhua and 89% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 89% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 89% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Relegation Round - 6, as Shanghai Shenhua and Shijiazhuang Y. J. drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.38 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.89 / defence 1.07 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.84 / defence 1.33, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Draw 31% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 47%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.