Tianjin Teda 1-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Nantong Zhiyun at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at TEDA Football Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 7D 0L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Nantong Zhiyun have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Tianjin Teda have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 63% and Nantong Zhiyun 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Tianjin Teda 37% | Nantong Zhiyun 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.56 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.970 / defence 0.968 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.030 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.276. Data: 30 Tianjin Teda games / 30 Nantong Zhiyun games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 27% | Nantong Zhiyun 30%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Nantong Zhiyun 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Nantong Zhiyun 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 27% | Nantong Zhiyun 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.56 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.970 / def 0.968 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.030 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Nantong Zhiyun xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 43% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (2 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 1 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Nantong Zhiyun's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.73
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.83
1.27
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
6%
15.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.27 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 11W 15D 4L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Nantong Zhiyun's form line: 4W 10D 16L from 30 games, 0.73 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantong Zhiyun.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (5W 10D 0L).
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 6D 7L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.87 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 11W 15D 4L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 4W 10D 16L in their last 30 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.67 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Nantong Zhiyun been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Nantong Zhiyun in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 June 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 25 June 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Tianjin Teda at 67%, Nantong Zhiyun at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Tianjin Teda) and 33% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Tianjin Teda's games and 67% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Tianjin Teda and Nantong Zhiyun drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.56 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.27 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 43% | Draw 27% | Nantong Zhiyun 30%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 37%, Nantong Zhiyun 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.