Shandong Luneng 0-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shandong Luneng have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 1.20 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shandong Luneng lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 53% versus Henan Jianye 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 55% | Henan Jianye 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.60 xG and Henan Jianye 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.016 / defence 0.945 | Henan Jianye attack 0.956 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.236. Data: 30 Shandong Luneng games / 30 Henan Jianye games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 27%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Henan Jianye 3.70. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 50% | Henan Jianye 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.60 / Henan Jianye 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.016 / def 0.945 | Henan Jianye attack 0.956 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Henan Jianye xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng 0 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 49% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
Record (6 meetings): Shandong Luneng 3W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 2W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.96x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
49%
2.06
25%
4.02
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.71
1.12
Henan Jianye xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.12 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 19D 12L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.20 PPG from 60 outings (18W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 20W 6D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (5W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 games (1.77 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.20 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 5-1 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 53%, Henan Jianye 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Shandong Luneng) and 47% (Henan Jianye). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 53% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 47% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shandong Luneng's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.60 xG and Henan Jianye 1.12 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Henan Jianye attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 49% | Draw 25% | Henan Jianye 27%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 55%, Henan Jianye 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.