Qingdao Jonoon 5-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 49%, yet in-form Yunnan Yukun provide a compelling counter-argument — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yunnan Yukun make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's home record at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Yunnan Yukun are 0.90 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon in recent Super League fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Jonoon lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 42% versus Yunnan Yukun 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 37% | Yunnan Yukun 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.52 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.811 / defence 0.889 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.827 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.746 / away 1.361. Data: 49 Qingdao Jonoon games / 19 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 49% | Draw 27% | Yunnan Yukun 24%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Yunnan Yukun 4.17. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yunnan Yukun (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Yunnan Yukun 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 49% | Draw 27% | Yunnan Yukun 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.52 / Yunnan Yukun 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.811 / def 0.889 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.827 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.746 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Yunnan Yukun xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun?
Qingdao Jonoon 5 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 49% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | Yunnan Yukun 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Yunnan Yukun in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.81) and Yunnan Yukun's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Yunnan Yukun's attack (0.83x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.70
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.52
1.00
Yunnan Yukun xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.00 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Qingdao Jonoon have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 2W 5D 12L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yunnan Yukun's form line: 7W 5D 7L from 19 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Yunnan Yukun are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Jonoon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (2W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.58 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Yunnan Yukun have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yunnan Yukun's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Yunnan Yukun are on 1.58 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Yunnan Yukun in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 5D 12L in their last 19 games (0.58 PPG), while Yunnan Yukun have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Yunnan Yukun away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.11 PPG; Yunnan Yukun away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Qingdao Jonoon won 5-1 on 9 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Yunnan Yukun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
2
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 4-2 Yunnan Yukun.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 44%, Yunnan Yukun 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 56% (Yunnan Yukun).
On the defensive side: Yunnan Yukun in 33%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Yunnan Yukun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 67% of Yunnan Yukun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 56% of Yunnan Yukun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Yunnan Yukun tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Yunnan Yukun in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Qingdao Jonoon run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Yunnan Yukun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Yunnan Yukun 5-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.52 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.00 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.81 / defence 0.89 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.83 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 49% | Draw 27% | Yunnan Yukun 24%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 37%, Yunnan Yukun 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Yunnan Yukun arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Jonoon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.