Henan Jianye 2-3 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Youth Island at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Qingdao Youth Island travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 April 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Youth Island have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Qingdao Youth Island's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.20 PPG versus Qingdao Youth Island's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Henan Jianye, 0 for Qingdao Youth Island and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2024, ended 1–0 with Henan Jianye winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Qingdao Youth Island trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 53% versus Qingdao Youth Island 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 43% | Qingdao Youth Island 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.60 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.888 / defence 1.099 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.033 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.497. Data: 33 Henan Jianye games / 33 Qingdao Youth Island games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 40%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Qingdao Youth Island 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Youth Island as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Youth Island offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 40% | Qingdao Youth Island 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Henan Jianye 1.60 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.888 / def 1.099 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.033 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Youth Island (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Qingdao Youth Island xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 1 April 2025 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Henan Jianye 2 - 3 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 36% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Youth Island the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (2 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.89) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Youth Island Win
36%
2.79
24%
4.10
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.30
1.70
Qingdao Youth Island xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
7%
15.26
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.70 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 9W 9D 12L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Qingdao Youth Island's form line: 8W 8D 14L from 30 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.20 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 5W 1D 9L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.37 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Youth Island in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.40 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Qingdao Youth Island been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Qingdao Youth Island in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
2
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 47%, Qingdao Youth Island 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Henan Jianye) and 73% (Qingdao Youth Island). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Henan Jianye have failed to score in 27% of games; Qingdao Youth Island in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Qingdao Youth Island?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 60% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Henan Jianye's matches and 73% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Henan Jianye 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Youth Island beat Henan Jianye 2-3 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.60 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.70 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 40%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.