Henan Jianye 1-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Qingdao Youth Island travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 June 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Henan Jianye, 0 for Qingdao Youth Island and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.26 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.981 / defence 1.085 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.816 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.400. Qingdao Youth Island bring a strong defensive rating of 1.498 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Henan Jianye games / 15 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 60% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 19%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Youth Island 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Jun 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 60% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Henan Jianye 2.26 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.981 / def 1.085 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.816 / def 1.498 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Qingdao Youth Island xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 25 June 2024 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Henan Jianye 1 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 60% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Youth Island 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Henan Jianye home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.98) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.81
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.50
1.24
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
10%
9.62
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
2%
49.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.24 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
2
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Qingdao Youth Island 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.26 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.24 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.82 / defence 1.50, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 60% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 19%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.