Hebei Zhongji 0-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees SHANGHAI SIPG travel to Jinzhou Stadium to take on Hebei Zhongji. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 June 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji at Jinzhou Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Hebei Zhongji are significantly better at Jinzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SHANGHAI SIPG stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SHANGHAI SIPG are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hebei Zhongji, 1 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Hebei Zhongji winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hebei Zhongji in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 41% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 32% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.26 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.808 / defence 1.362 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.863 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.112. Data: 16 Hebei Zhongji games / 16 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 36% | Draw 27% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hebei Zhongji 40% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (16 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 36% | Draw 27% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.26 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.808 / def 1.362 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.863 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.31
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 June 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 36% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (2 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 1W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hebei Zhongji's attack at 0.81x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (16/16 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
36%
2.82
27%
3.76
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.56
1.31
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.31 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hebei Zhongji come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 7D 9L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.05 PPG from 22 outings (13W 6D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hebei Zhongji's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SHANGHAI SIPG's season.
The Goals Picture
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.91 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 13W 6D 3L in their last 22 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 1.45 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 46%, SHANGHAI SIPG 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Hebei Zhongji) and 54% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 36% of games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 64% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 54% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Hebei Zhongji 0-2 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.26 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.31 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.81 / defence 1.36 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 16/16 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 36% | Draw 27% | SHANGHAI SIPG 38%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 32%, SHANGHAI SIPG 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.