SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jinzhou Stadium plays host to SHANGHAI SIPG versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 June 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 8W 1D 1L at Jinzhou Stadium — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinzhou Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Jinzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for SHANGHAI SIPG, 2.00 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SHANGHAI SIPG 1W, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 41% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 50% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.80 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.906 / defence 0.969 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.878 / defence 1.553. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.097. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.553 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 17 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 57% | Draw 24% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 19%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: SHANGHAI SIPG 10% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (17 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jun 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 57% | Draw 24% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.80 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.906 / def 0.969 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.878 / def 1.553 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 15 June 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 57% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (2 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 1W | Draws 1 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (0.88x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (17/17 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.22
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.73
0.93
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
3%
32.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.93 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 13W 6D 3L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form line: 13W 5D 4L from 22 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.05 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 2.00 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.55 PPG from 11 outings (9W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.05 PPG overall — SHANGHAI SIPG are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 5W 2D 4L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 2.14 scored and 0.77 conceded. SHANGHAI SIPG's scoring rate against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 13W 6D 3L in their last 22 games (2.05 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 13W 5D 4L in their last 22 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.55 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.55 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 July 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 18% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 36% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 36% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 36%; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 36% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 36% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.80 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Guangzhou Evergrande FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.55, drawn from 17/17 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 57% | Draw 24% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 19%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 50%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 2.05 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.