Guangzhou R&F 1-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou R&F at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yuexiushan Stadium plays host to Guangzhou R&F versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guangzhou R&F have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yuexiushan Stadium, Guangzhou R&F have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Guangzhou R&F lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Guangzhou R&F — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou R&F 50% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou R&F 55% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.38 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.742 / defence 1.537 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.674 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.247. Guangzhou R&F's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Guangzhou R&F's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Guangzhou R&F games / 31 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 37% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou R&F are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Guangzhou Evergrande FC (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guangzhou R&F if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: Guangzhou R&F 40% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 37% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.38 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.742 / def 1.537 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.674 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou R&F (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Guangzhou R&F 1 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 37% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou R&F the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (2 meetings): Guangzhou R&F 0W | Draws 2 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Guangzhou R&F's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (0.67x) against Guangzhou R&F's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou R&F Win
37%
2.67
29%
3.43
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.29 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guangzhou R&F come into this having played 38 games, going 8W 8D 22L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC sit at 1.42 PPG from 38 outings (16W 6D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Guangzhou R&F's home form reads 4W 3D 12L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (6W 2D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guangzhou R&F are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Guangzhou R&F have gone 8W 8D 22L in their last 38 games (0.84 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 16W 6D 16L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou R&F at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou R&F at home: 0.79 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Guangzhou R&F or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou R&F have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guangzhou R&F have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guangzhou R&F
3
Draws
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-0 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou R&F and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Guangzhou R&F have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou R&F 53%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Guangzhou R&F and 47% for Guangzhou Evergrande FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F have failed to score in 37% of games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou R&F play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Guangzhou R&F's recent matches and 37% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou R&F vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Guangzhou R&F's matches and 47% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's.
Do Guangzhou R&F and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Guangzhou R&F have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guangzhou R&F edge out Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou R&F beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.38 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guangzhou Evergrande FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 0.74 / defence 1.54 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.28, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 37% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 33%, with Guangzhou R&F to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou R&F 55%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Guangzhou R&F winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.