Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5-0 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Qingdao Huanghai travel to Tianhe Stadium to take on Guangzhou Evergrande FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 11 August 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tianhe Stadium, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 5W 1D 0L this season (6 games, 2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Huanghai have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Huanghai have posted 0W 1D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, 0 for Qingdao Huanghai and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2021, ended 6–0 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Qingdao Huanghai in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 69% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 62% versus Qingdao Huanghai 23%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 62% | Qingdao Huanghai 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.51 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.578 / defence 1.028 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.527 / defence 1.489. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.318. Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.578 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Qingdao Huanghai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.489 — this is suppressing Guangzhou Evergrande FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 13 Qingdao Huanghai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 75% | Draw 18% | Qingdao Huanghai 7%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.33 | Draw 5.56 | Qingdao Huanghai 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Guangzhou Evergrande FC (75%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 67% | Qingdao Huanghai 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 75% | Draw 18% | Qingdao Huanghai 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 48% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.51 / Qingdao Huanghai 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.578 / def 1.028 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.527 / def 1.489 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Qingdao Huanghai xG
48%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 11 August 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5 - 0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 75% chance of winning, Qingdao Huanghai a 7% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Qingdao Huanghai will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Qingdao Huanghai?
Record (1 meetings): Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Huanghai 0W.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Qingdao Huanghai in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack rating (1.58) and Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 2.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Huanghai's attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
75%
1.34
18%
5.47
7%
14.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
3.22
0.71
Qingdao Huanghai xG
1.34
75%
Home win
5.47
18%
Draw
14.49
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
8%
12.26
Win to Nil
37%
2.73
1%
177.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Qingdao Huanghai expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 0.71 for Qingdao Huanghai, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 8W 3D 2L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Huanghai's form line: 2W 1D 10L from 13 games, 0.54 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Qingdao Huanghai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the form team by 1.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Huanghai.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.08 PPG overall — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Qingdao Huanghai have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 2.62 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Huanghai are on 0.46 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Qingdao Huanghai in 23%.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Qingdao Huanghai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Qingdao Huanghai in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 8W 3D 2L in their last 13 games (2.08 PPG), while Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 10L in their last 13 (0.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Qingdao Huanghai away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 2.67 PPG; Qingdao Huanghai away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Qingdao Huanghai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Qingdao Huanghai in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Qingdao Huanghai runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0
Draws
0
Qingdao Huanghai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Qingdao Huanghai?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Qingdao Huanghai last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2021, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 5-0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Qingdao Huanghai?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Qingdao Huanghai see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 67%, Qingdao Huanghai 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 17% (Qingdao Huanghai).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Qingdao Huanghai in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Qingdao Huanghai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Qingdao Huanghai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 17% of Qingdao Huanghai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Qingdao Huanghai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 17% of Qingdao Huanghai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Qingdao Huanghai tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Qingdao Huanghai in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guangzhou Evergrande FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Qingdao Huanghai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Qingdao Huanghai 5-0 at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.51 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.71 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.58 / defence 1.03 against Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.53 / defence 1.49, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 75% | Draw 18% | Qingdao Huanghai 7%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 62%, Qingdao Huanghai 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 69% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.54. That form edge translated into the three points. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Huanghai (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.