Chengdu Better City 0-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Chengdu Better City welcome Tianjin Teda to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chengdu Better City have posted 5W 3D 2L at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Tianjin Teda — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Tianjin Teda 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 62% versus Tianjin Teda 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 55% | Tianjin Teda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.41 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.147 / defence 1.035 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.886 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.396. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.721 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Chengdu Better City games / 56 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 39% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 33%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Tianjin Teda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Chengdu Better City dominate the H2H record, yet Tianjin Teda are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tianjin Teda (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 60% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 39% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.41 / Tianjin Teda 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.147 / def 1.035 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.886 / def 0.721 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Tianjin Teda xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City 0 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 39% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Record (9 meetings): Chengdu Better City 4W | Draws 3 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 1.15x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.52
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.69
1.28
Tianjin Teda xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.28 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 32W 16D 8L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 21W 16D 19L from 56 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 2.11 PPG from 27 outings (17W 6D 4L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 8W 8D 11L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.36 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chengdu Better City have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 32W 16D 8L in their last 56 games (2.00 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.11 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Chengdu Better City 0-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 59%, Tianjin Teda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Chengdu Better City) and 48% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Chengdu Better City's games and 56% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Chengdu Better City's recent games and 48% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chengdu Better City and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Chengdu Better City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Chengdu Better City 0-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Football Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.41 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.28 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chengdu Better City fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.89 / defence 0.72, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 39% | Draw 28% | Tianjin Teda 33%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 55%, Tianjin Teda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Tianjin Teda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.