Beijing Guoan 2-1 Yunnan Yukun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Yunnan Yukun at Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 30 June 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 7W 2D 1L at Workers' Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Workers' Stadium.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Beijing Guoan have won 1, Yunnan Yukun 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.92 xG and Yunnan Yukun 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.148 / defence 0.719 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.858 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.325. Beijing Guoan's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Beijing Guoan games / 15 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 63% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 15%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Yunnan Yukun 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jun 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 63% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.92 / Yunnan Yukun 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.148 / def 0.719 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.858 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Yunnan Yukun xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun kicked off at 12:35 on Monday 30 June 2025 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 1 Yunnan Yukun.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 63% chance of winning, Yunnan Yukun a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun?
Record (1 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 0 | Yunnan Yukun 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Beijing Guoan home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 3.10 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.15) and Yunnan Yukun's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yunnan Yukun's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.68
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.74
0.82
Yunnan Yukun xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
15%
6.82
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
2%
44.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.82 for Yunnan Yukun, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Yunnan Yukun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
Yunnan Yukun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Yunnan Yukun specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
0
Yunnan Yukun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun?
From 4 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 2, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 3-3 Yunnan Yukun.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Yunnan Yukun?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Yunnan Yukun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Yunnan Yukun 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Yunnan Yukun 2-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.92 xG and Yunnan Yukun 0.82 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.15 / defence 0.72 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 63% | Draw 21% | Yunnan Yukun 15%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.