Beijing Guoan 1-0 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F meet at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium in Super League (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Monday 22 August 2022 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Beijing Guoan's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Beijing Guoan have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Guangzhou R&F have collected 0.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 0D 10L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
When travelling, Guangzhou R&F have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Beijing Guoan's 1.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Guangzhou R&F's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Guangzhou R&F's last 10 away games) — Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Guangzhou R&F in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Guangzhou R&F and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2022, ended Beijing Guoan 1–1 Guangzhou R&F — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Guangzhou R&F goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 60% versus Guangzhou R&F 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 54% | Guangzhou R&F 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.58 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.913 / defence 0.800 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.750 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.317. Guangzhou R&F's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beijing Guoan's projected output up. Guangzhou R&F's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 27 games and Guangzhou R&F's last 27.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 55% | Draw 26% | Guangzhou R&F 18%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.80 | Draw 3.78 | Guangzhou R&F 5.51. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 home games) | Guangzhou R&F 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, matchday 14 | Venue: Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 22 August 2022 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 55% | Draw 26% | Guangzhou R&F 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Beijing Guoan 1.58 / Guangzhou R&F 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.913 / def 0.800 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.750 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Guangzhou R&F xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Monday 22 August 2022 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 0 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F is a Super League fixture (matchday 14) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 55% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Guangzhou R&F's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Guangzhou R&F's attack (0.75x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 27 games and Guangzhou R&F's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
55%
1.80
26%
3.78
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.37
0.79
Guangzhou R&F xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
4%
26.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.79 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 35 games, going 14W 10D 11L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Guangzhou R&F sit at 0.83 PPG from 35 outings (7W 8D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 8W 7D 1L across their last 16 home games, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Guangzhou R&F have taken 0.81 points per game from their last 16 away games (3W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.09 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Guangzhou R&F (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 14W 10D 11L in their last 35 games (1.49 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 7W 8D 20L in their last 35 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.94 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 21 November 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guangzhou R&F won Guangzhou R&F 5-0 Beijing Guoan on 19 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
1
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 2, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 November 2022: Guangzhou R&F 1-2 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 62%, Guangzhou R&F 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Beijing Guoan) and 31% (Guangzhou R&F).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Guangzhou R&F in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Guangzhou R&F Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 44% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 31% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Guangzhou R&F matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 44% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 75% of Guangzhou R&F's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Guangzhou R&F 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Guangzhou R&F 1-0 at Rizhao International Football Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.58 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.79 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 0.91 / defence 0.80 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.75 / defence 1.25, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 55% | Draw 26% | Guangzhou R&F 18%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 54%, Guangzhou R&F 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.