York United 1-0 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
York United (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for York United against 1.20 for Atlético Ottawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Atlético Ottawa — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 50% versus Atlético Ottawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 54% | Atlético Ottawa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.08 xG and Atlético Ottawa 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.753 / defence 1.309 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.124 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.381. York United's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 York United games / 54 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 19% | Draw 21% | Atlético Ottawa 59%. Fair-value odds: York United 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | Atlético Ottawa 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Atlético Ottawa (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atlético Ottawa are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: York United 50% | Atlético Ottawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 19% | Draw 21% | Atlético Ottawa 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG York United 1.08 / Atlético Ottawa 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.753 / def 1.309 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.124 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
York United xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Atlético Ottawa xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
York United 1 - 0 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is York United vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives York United a 19% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both York United and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in?
York United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from York United's attack rating (0.75) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.12x) against York United's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
19%
5.16
21%
4.68
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
York United xG
Total xG
3.11
2.03
Atlético Ottawa xG
5.16
19%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
13%
7.63
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
3%
39.39
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are York United and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for York United and 2.03 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
York United come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 12D 24L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.48 PPG from 54 outings (21W 17D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for York United against 1.48 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
York United's home form reads 8W 5D 14L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.67 points per game from 27 outings (13W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.35 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
York United have gone 18W 12D 24L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 21W 17D 16L in their last 54 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Atlético Ottawa's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.07 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.67 PPG.
Have York United or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-1 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
York United
5
Draws
1
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 4, Atlético Ottawa have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did York United and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 44%, Atlético Ottawa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (York United) and 48% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 33%; York United have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of York United's recent matches and 52% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of York United's recent games and 48% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Atlético Ottawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Atlético Ottawa 1-0 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.08 xG and Atlético Ottawa 2.03 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atlético Ottawa landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.75 / defence 1.31 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.12 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 19% | Draw 21% | Atlético Ottawa 59%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a York United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 54%, Atlético Ottawa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.22 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.