Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Pacific FC travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023, 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Cavalry FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cavalry FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Pacific FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Cavalry FC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus Pacific FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 53% | Pacific FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.59 xG and Pacific FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.180 / defence 0.772 | Pacific FC attack 1.212 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.337. Pacific FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Cavalry FC's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Cavalry FC games / 55 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 45% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Pacific FC 3.33. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 60% | Pacific FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 45% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Cavalry FC 1.59 / Pacific FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.180 / def 0.772 | Pacific FC attack 1.212 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pacific FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC 3 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 45% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cavalry FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.18x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
45%
2.21
25%
4.05
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.84
1.25
Pacific FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.25 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 29W 13D 15L from 57 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 18L across 57 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.75 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 19W 4D 5L from 28 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 12W 6D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 29W 13D 15L in their last 57 games (1.75 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 24W 15D 18L in their last 57 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cavalry FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Pacific FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 54%, Pacific FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Cavalry FC) and 46% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pacific FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 50% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 46% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 3-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.59 xG and Pacific FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pacific FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.77 against Pacific FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 45% | Draw 25% | Pacific FC 30%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 53%, Pacific FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacific FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.75 PPG, Pacific FC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.